Case study · Confectionery
Demand Forecasting
Scenario forecasts through Covid and recovery — validated against a consumer survey — that reset the marketing plan.
Client
A mid-tier confectionery manufacturer
Industry
Confectionery
Result
$20MM revenue growth
Capability
Forecasting Optimizer
The situation
What the client was facing.
The client needed to know how Covid-19 would affect its core businesses and what that meant for 2021 — and how its smaller businesses could compete with larger players.
Unprecedented demand disruption
Several possible recovery paths
Smaller brands competing with big players
Our approach
How we got there.
Methods used
- 01
Built a forecasting model on three years of history, before and during Covid
- 02
Modeled the effect of macroeconomic, mobility, category and company variables on sales
- 03
Validated results against a consumer survey
- 04
Forecast the rest of 2020 and 2021 under several Covid and recovery scenarios
- 05
Derived the marketing strategy implications
Value created
$20MM
revenue growth
Forecast showed 2021 volume falling after a large 2020 increase
The category was moving fast to e-commerce — the client needed a strong e-commerce strategy
Growth depended on keeping the new buyers who entered the category that year
A stronger marketing plan was needed to build brands and attract consumers
More client work
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